According to the Emissions Gap Report 2022, current policies point to a temperature rise of 2.5°C - 2.8°C by the end of the century.
As stated in the report, "there is no credible pathway to 1.5°C." Now. If that isn't enough to give you the creeps this October, here's some more.
Warming will not magically "stop" at 2.5 degrees Celsius because it cannot. Our planet is not constructed in this manner. Feedbacks kick in at 2.5°C, pushing it to 3°C or 4°C, or even more. There are multiple equilibria in this nonlinear system.